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Tropical Storm HILARY Advisory Tue Jul 25

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 105W       34 83  13(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
15N 105W       50 18  45(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
15N 105W       64  3  29(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  42(58)   5(63)   1(64)   X(64)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   1(15)   1(16)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  33(48)   2(50)   X(50)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  56(57)  21(78)   1(79)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)  21(47)   1(48)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  16(28)   1(29)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   9(30)   1(31)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  24(46)   4(50)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   2(21)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  24(44)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECASTER PASCH