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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS Advisory Wed Sep 15

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BATON ROUGE LA 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  2   X( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ALEXANDRIA LA  34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

LAFAYETTE LA   34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SHREVEPORT LA  34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FORT POLK LA   34  5   7(12)   3(15)   1(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)

LAKE CHARLES   34 11  14(25)   4(29)   X(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAMERON LA     34 15  12(27)   2(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

JASPER TX      34 18   9(27)   1(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
JASPER TX      50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

KOUNTZE TX     34 61   7(68)   1(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
KOUNTZE TX     50  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 58  10(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GALVESTON TX   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GALVESTON TX   50 55   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)

HOUSTON TX     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HOUSTON TX     50 44   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

FREEPORT TX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FREEPORT TX    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FREEPORT TX    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 11   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

MATAGORDA TX   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

PORT O CONNOR  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
FORECASTER BLAKE