Tropical Storm EARL Advisory Wed Aug 03

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1600 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016

AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  21(25)   1(26)   X(26)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   5( 5)  35(40)  10(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

GUANAJA        34  1  38(39)  21(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
GUANAJA        50  X   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA