MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 826 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC AND HIGHLY CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH DEEP COMPACT FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING TIGHTLY INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 30-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH MINOR TILT ADJUSTMENT AS EVIDENCED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 120545Z 37 GHZ SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140 KTS FROM RJTD AND T7.5/155 KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 26W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EASTWARD CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AT 28-30 CELSIUS ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. B. STY 26W WILL TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AS THE STR REORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING EASTWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE TUTT CELL AND ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH LUZON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS PROVEN EFFECTIVE THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT LIFESPAN OF STY 26W. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. C. AFTER TAU 72, STY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCS TOWARD HONG KONG. DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS GRADUAL THEN RAPID DECAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 102 AT 90 KNOTS THEN WILL BE REDUCED TO A 50-KNOT SYSTEM BY TAU 120 AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH CTCX AS THE LONE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY CTCX SOLUTION.// NNNN NNNN