MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MEGI) WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18-NM RAGGED EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 260554Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC LLCC. BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KTS, AND IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 95 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TY MEGI IS TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN A STRAIGHT-RUNNER PATTERN WHILE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24 ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN. NEAR TAU 36, TY MEGI WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AFTER WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AND WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CHINA BY TAU 48. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE WHILE TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER CHINA. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS.// NNNN NNNN