MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 493 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 220350Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW/RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) BASED ON A 22/0406Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. RECENT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A 20-25NM RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A +2C TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AT 10-13 KM IN THE 22/0000Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. DESPITE SOME PRESSURE (CONVERGENCE) OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED LIMITED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TS 14W IS TRACKING POLEWARD WITHIN A BROAD COL REGION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND TRACKS OVER THE KANTO PLAIN REGION OF HONSHU. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 110NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES THROUGH TAU 24 WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TS 14W WILL QUICKLY GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT APPROACHES A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND JET- STRENGTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL HONSHU. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 48 TO 40-50 KNOTS WITH A CLEAR FRONTAL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 36-48 AND WILL TRACK OVER THE KANTO PLAIN AS A STORM-FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. AFTER TAU 48, THE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN HONSHU. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN