Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Wed Jul 08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI REVEALS A SLIGHTLY DEEPENED
STRUCTURE AND BETTER WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE POSITION IS BASED
ON A 070550Z NPP IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON ALL FIXING AGENCIES AGREEING ON FT OF
3.0. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE EFFECT OF THE PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERLY
VWS CAN BE SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN POTION OF THE SYSTEM. TS
LINFA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS, PARTIALLY FROM TY
09W. WHILE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST, THERE MAY BE SOME INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS,
BY TAU 24. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CAN HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND FORCE SIGNIFICANT DECAY OF THE
SYSTEM WITH ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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