Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Thu Jul 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH GOOD BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO THE LLCC. A DRY SLOT IS STILL APPARENT IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE AS WELL AS A 080532Z NPP IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS DUE
TO A PREVIOUS ASCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF 3.5 FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 10 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL STR
EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
EXTENSION BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU
12, TS LINFA WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS A WEAK STR BUILDING IN EASTERN
CHINA TAKES OVER AS THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH GUANGDONG, EXPECT CONTINUED DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THERE IS
A CHANCE, HOWEVER, THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BACK INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND DISSIPATE AT A LATER TIME AS THE VWS FROM THE
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES FORCE TS 10W BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY VARIED IN THE TC TRACK DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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